Bitcoin’s price action over the last 120 days has been a rollercoaster ride for investors. Starting around $37,000 in late November 2023, the price rallied strongly, nearly doubling to reach a high around $73,000 in early February 2024. However, after this impressive run, the price began to lose steam, retracing to around $50,000 by late February before attempting another rally to retest the highs in early March. Interestingly, this second high was slightly lower, forming a potential double top pattern that often precedes a trend reversal. Since that second peak, Bitcoin has been trending down, falling to around $66,000 by late March 2024, a decline of about 10% from the highs. The Stochastic RSI, which spent much of December and January in overbought territory above 80 as the price rallied, has since fallen, ending the period at 19.84 and suggesting waning bullish momentum.

Summary: 

Bitcoin’s price experienced a rollercoaster ride over the past 120 days, rallying from around $37,000 to nearly $73,000 before retracing to around $66,000 by late March 2024. The OBV indicator suggests underlying buying pressure remains intact, despite the recent pullback. Key Fibonacci retracement levels to watch are $64,400 (0.236) and $59,500 (0.382) from the November-February rally. In the short-term, a break above $67,209 could signal continued bullish momentum, while a decline below $64,446 (61.8% Fibonacci) may indicate a deeper correction. Overall, the technical picture remains bullish if Bitcoin holds above key support levels.

Bitcoin’s price action over the last 120 days has been a rollercoaster ride for investors. Starting around $37,000 in late November 2023, the price rallied strongly, nearly doubling to reach a high around $73,000 in early February 2024. However, after this impressive run, the price began to lose steam, retracing to around $50,000 by late February before attempting another rally to retest the highs in early March. Interestingly, this second high was slightly lower, forming a potential double top pattern that often precedes a trend reversal.

Since that second peak, Bitcoin has been trending down, falling to around $66,000 by late March 2024, a decline of about 10% from the highs. The Stochastic RSI, which spent much of December and January in overbought territory above 80 as the price rallied, has since fallen, ending the period at 19.84 and suggesting waning bullish momentum.

Notably, the OBV indicator, which rose steadily from November to February and confirmed the bullish price action, has not turned down significantly with the recent price declines. This suggests that the underlying buying pressure may still be intact, and buyers could step in to support the price.

Looking at the Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the November low to February high, the price bounced right at the 0.382 retracement level around $59,500 in late February and is currently testing the 0.236 level around $64,400. A decisive break below this level would suggest a deeper pullback is likely, with the next support at the 0.382 level again.

Zooming into the last 40 days from February 15th to March 25th, 2024, we see Bitcoin started around $51,880 and trended mostly sideways until February 26th. From there, the price broke out sharply to the upside, rallying over 40% to a high of $73,074 by March 13th. However, the price then reversed course and declined back to around $66,859 by the end of the period.

Interestingly, the OBV indicator showed very strong positive divergence from the price during the February consolidation phase, foreshadowing the major rally that followed. OBV continued making new highs even as the price advance stalled in mid-March, indicating underlying buying pressure remained intact. This bullish OBV divergence suggests the pullback may prove to be a healthy correction and consolidation within a larger uptrend.

The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the rally from $50,745 to $73,074 show the pullback retraced about 50% of that up move, finding support right around the key 0.5 Fibonacci level near $62,000. Holding above this level keeps the overall technical picture bullish.

Finally, looking at the most recent 3-day period from March 22nd to March 25th, 2024, we see Bitcoin’s price started at $64,261.40 and initially trended downwards before recovering. It then moved higher, reaching $65,659.80, with the Stochastic RSI moving into overbought territory. However, a sharp reversal followed, with the price declining to a low of $63,991.50.

The price then bounced and trended higher again, peaking at $67,209.80 before pulling back slightly. Throughout this period, the OBV indicator initially declined but then started rising, suggesting increasing buying volume supporting the upward price movement.

Key Fibonacci retracement levels to watch based on the move from the $62,740.60 low to the $67,209.80 high are $66,154.21 (23.6%), $65,503.42 (38.2%), $64,975.20 (50%), and $64,446.98 (61.8%).

In conclusion, while the strong uptrend from November to February was very bullish, the recent price action suggests the rally may be losing steam. However, the still strong OBV line suggests that buyers may step in to support the price. If Bitcoin can hold above the key Fibonacci levels, the medium-term uptrend could still be intact for a potential move higher. But a decisive break below these levels would open the door to a deeper pullback.

In the short-term, traders should watch for a sustained break above the March 24th high at $67,209.80 for confirmation of continued bullish momentum, or a decline below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $64,446.98, which would suggest a deeper correction is unfolding. The 50% retracement level at $64,975.20 is a key pivot point to watch. As always, investors and traders should use a combination of technical and fundamental analysis and employ proper risk management strategies when making investment decisions.